The search for RELLevance

Good times are upon us. And if we have learned anything from the past elections: there are only a few states that are really ever in doubt. Penn., Ohio, Florida. Of course, I'm kidding in some sense, and in others I am not. So here is a breakdown of the fun that is happening in Ohio for a Senate seat between Republican Mike DeWine and Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown. According to the Boston Globe, Brown has taken a slight edge in the polls, 45-43, but that's within the margins.

This is one of the closest races in America this year. The Democrats need the seat to go along with several other key races if they want to take control of Congress, which is likely to come but maybe not until 2008.

The reason I like to look at this race is probably because it indicates a broader national trend. Ohio is just like that. And I watched part of the debate on Sunday's Meet the Press, easily the hardest interview in America. And arguably Mike DeWine won the debate because he sounded like a guy that knew his numbers, the legislation, the process and the trends, while Brown sounded like he was merely a politician trying to beat his opponent with whatever wedge he might find. But then it was pointed out that DeWine votes 93 to 96 % of the time with President Bush, up until last year. And Brown did a decent job at throwing a jab at that, linking DeWine to Bush, Bush to Iraq, Iraq to failures. And likely that's enough for Brown to stay near or above his opponent. Here's another version of how the debate went if you don't trust me.

SEN. DeWINE: The majority of times of those 10 times where Sherrod Brown voted to cut our intelligence spending, he was the minority even of his own party. In addition to that, Tim, we passed the Patriot Act. We all came together, passed it, 98-to-1 in the Senate. That means Ted Kennedy voted for it, John Kerry voted for it. Sherrod Brown in the House, was one of 66 members of the House to vote against the Patriot Act, and he continues to vote against the Patriot Act, to deny our law enforcement the tools they need to go against terror.

MR. RUSSERT: All right. I’m going to give him 30 seconds to respond to that, then I want to move to the future.

REP. BROWN: Well, the, the—again, the—on the intelligence, the intelligence...

MR. RUSSERT: But you voted against the Patriot Act?

REP. BROWN: I did vote against the Patriot Act. The Patriot Act had a lot of good things in it, but it, it, it went too far. And it’s, it’s not—the Patriot Act is law now, but we’ve not done what we should do in Afghanistan. We’ve not done what we should do to protect the United States of America. And clearly his focus has been “stay the course” in Iraq, the status quo in Iraq, and that has caused all other parts of the war on terror—it’s undermined all other parts of the war on terror, coupled with the fact the intelligence experts are saying the war in Iraq is making us less safe, Tim.

The point being that the whole debate is over Iraq. The Democrats don't even have to come up with an exit strategy to win in November; they just have to keep punching it.

Prediction: DeWine's done but closes the gap by election day. Undecideds pick Brown on election day. Any other guesses?